Is the Bull Market Over?

https://youtu.be/byyvNB-4N7c

After spending precisely three years below its 2017 high of $19,800, Bitcoin finally broke that price level and started a super-bullish cycle that saw coin price increase by a whopping 300%. This remarkable price increase saw Bitcoin price hit an all-time high of $64,800 by April 2021.

At the time, investor confidence was high, and a new wave of optimism was injected into the market. The demand for Bitcoin grew by the day. Similarly, many altcoins saw dramatic price increases, with most alts breaking their all-time highs. Additionally, the DeFi space saw remarkable growth, with many new projects springing up on all fronts. These projects included the good, the bad, and in some cases, the ridiculous.

Since its April high, Bitcoin price has plummeted by 40%, leaving coin price in the $30,000 region within two months. This sharp price drop has profoundly affected the crypto community as investor confidence is now very low. This crash has left many investors and analysts asking, "Is the Bull Market over."

While it's difficult to predict the market's next move, we will consider what current market conditions suggest in this video.

(Intro)

Hello guys, it's crypto gemmy here again. Before we start our journey, it's vital you hit that like button and subscribe to this channel. Seriously, I would appreciate the kind action.

It’s appropriate to start with what a bull market is. A bull market is a market that is on the rise and where market conditions are generally favourable, while a bear market experiences prolonged price declines over an extended period. On the other hand, a market correction is a short-term decline in price. So in crypto, the period between October 2020 and mid-April of this year can be described as a bull market because Bitcoin and the entire crypto market experienced a continuous rise in price. The first major Bitcoin bull run ended in December 2017, followed by a bear market that lasted for 3 years. So does the current rapid fall in price indicate that we have another bear market in our hands now? Let's consider current market conditions and see what they suggest:

The first market condition is FUD, an acronym for "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt," Recently, many FUD bombs revolving around Elon, Energy, and China have taken over the market. For example, Elon Musk initially stated that Tesla would start accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment but later backtracked on that statement due to environmental concerns caused by Bitcoin mining. Next, China began a clampdown on Bitcoin mining because of environmental concerns and regulatory risks.

These events generated massive FUD that dampened the market's momentum, which then brought the coin prices down; however, from history, the crypto market has always recovered from the dips that come with regulatory risks or a high profile individual expressing an adverse opinion. We can then conclude that these are not the kind of things that have the power to end a true bull market.

The next market conditions we would consider are technical principles based on trading charts.

On June 21, Bitcoin triggered the Death Cross narrative, which describes its 50-day average falling below its 200-day moving average. Generally, Death Crosses are a dreaded sight for Bulls because they signal bearish behaviour across markets. Of course, these sudden sell-offs might be tied to miners shutting their operation in China, but a close look at it suggests it's not all doom and gloom. In the past, Bitcoin Death Cross appeared on the charts in March 2018 and March 2020; on both occasions, Bitcoin price rallied in the days that followed. While it's difficult to predict if the same will happen this time around, the charts tell us that we are either in a full-fledged bear market or a mini-bear market that is a normal correction for further upside moves.

The Stock-to-flow ratio is another Technical that gives us an insight into where Bitcoin tends to settle towards. Currently, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio suggests that it should reach about $100,000 around mid-August, but while the actual price follows the trend, it does not precisely follow the predicted line. In the past, whenever there are concerns caused by regulation and security, the price drops below the predicted line. It makes sense for Bitcoin to currently have deviated below the $100,000 predicted price line considering the past 3 months have been rife with regulatory risks and environmental concerns.

Another condition I will mention is the macro forces at play in the market. Glassnode, a Blockchain research group, reports that newer entrants who have held their assets for 155 days or less have been primarily behind the latest panic selling. On the other hand, major institutions have been buying up Bitcoin during this dip. Paypal, Wealthsimple, Morgan Stanley are just a few of the large corporations that are buying and providing institutional support for Bitcoin and its peers. While this movement from paper hands to diamond hands keeps occurring, El Salvador has made moves to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender, and this has encouraged several politicians in Latin America to come out in support of adoption in their respective countries. We can be confident that further adoption will re-invigorate the market.

We are now in a healthier and more sustainable market compared to 2017, and crypto now has interesting use-cases, unlike when it was just limited to speculation. We have real demand from Asia and US institutions. Micro strategy, Paypal, Tesla and some big hedge funds are watching and accumulating. Even with these positives, the crypto market remains very volatile and temperamental due to extreme reactions to news; as a result, it's difficult to predict its next move.

The good news for you is that I have 2 helpful tips for you: play dead and say no to emotional trades because you don’t want to catch a falling knife. If the bear market drags on, remember to keep your cool and not make any emotional trades.

And if you are a risk-tolerant person looking to maximize opportunities, you can accumulate by using the effective Dollar Cost Averaging strategy. The top ten coins are good targets for this strategy.

With all being said, thank you very much for watching. If you find this video is helpful, make sure you drop a like and subscribe to the channel. And I will see you guys real soon.

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